Great Earthquakes in the New Millennium 2000 and after
304 days after
9.0 MM 11 March 2011 Tohoku Genpatsu Shinsai Earthquake contrasted with 304 days after 2004 26 December 9.3 MM Banda Aceh Earthquake .
R. Ashok Kumar, B.E., M.E(Power), Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
© 2013 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
After the 304 days ending 8th January 2012, the Genpatsu-shinsai Tohoku 9.0 MM earthquake 156 km away from the Fukushima Daichi or Fukushima No 1 nuclear plant which resulted in nuclear explosion, 3 core meltdowns and core melt through the containment(s) and persistent recriticality, is 175% more intense as measured by the number of earthquakes per day(shallow or all) than the Banda Aceh 9.3 MM earthquake compared 304 days after. Note that the 304 day period for the Banda Aceh earthquake includes the 8.6 MM Northern Sumatra earthquake of 28th March 2005. All were shallow earthquakes.
In a little over 37 years 8122 shallow earthquakes occurred 400 km around Fukushima 1 nuclear power park from 1973 till 10 March 2011. It took just 304 days, that well under an year, short by 61 days to produce 4226 shallow earthquakes around the same park after the 9.0 MM great Tohoku earthquake:
The statistical interpretation
When we compare the populations of the two earthquake sets prior to the 9.3/9.0 great earthquakes, from 1/1/1973, they belong to the same population(F test probability 41 percent). Comparing them after the respective earthquakes but both for 304 days( for Tohoku 304 days ends on 8th January 2012 and for the Banda Aceh on 26th October 2005), the populations are radically different,p=1.92E-9.
See Table 1FB:
See Table 2FB:
The data in Table 2FB compares the dynamics of the two earthquake sets 400 km around the two earthquakes.
There is heightened quake activity after the great earthquakes, more than an order of magnitude per day compared with before the great quakes. Also for the Banda Aceh and Northern Sumatra quakes after 304 days after the Banda Aceh quake the number of earthquakes per day for the 0-69 km depth set is nearly two orders of magnitude higher(>95 times) than before the great Banda Aceh quake. Still the Tohoku quakes per day for the 0-69 km depth case after the great quake is nearly 175% higher than for the Banda Aceh set!
The cause for the great increase in earthquake activity in the Tohoku case: A plausible hypothesis based on the ground realities.
The reason for the much greater increase in the Tohoku case compared with the Banda Aceh case lies in the interconnected dynamics of dams and earthquake occurrence. As shown in Ref 1 earthquakes are caused by dams. And as shown in Ref 2 and Ref 3 hotspots and earthquakes are interconnected. The surges of forces at the centers of gravity of dam clusters the world over in response to terrific sudden electric load demands and other consumptive uses result in waves of water moments which pass through the crust of the earth and encounter points of resistance on the earth. The hotspots are thus created by friction between earth surfaces. The enormous heat developed underneath the Fukushima reactors by meltdowns, melt throughs, the nuclear explosion, the recriticalities and the Genpatsu-shinsai effect facilitate the enormous melting of the rocks resulting in intense shallow earthquake clusters even 300 days into the ongoing Fukushima catastrophe.
A piece of Fukushima Daichi # 1 nuclear plant evidence for the hypothesis.
Together with evidence of earthquakes caused by dams(Ref 1) and nuclear underground explosion(Ref 7) the evidence together with iodine-131 trails over Europa builds one credible picture of the ongoing Fukushima chaos as of date. On 21 October 2011 water withdrawal from 30 Indian dams alone accounted for 16.95533 billion cubic meters(bcm), which easily caused a 7.4 MM major earthquake on 2011,10,21 at 175716.1 UTC at -28.993,-176.238, at a depth of 33km, 18 minutes into the nuclear explosion underneath Fukushima(See web cam data at Ref 7) at 1738 UTC on 21 October 2011. This earthquake is 12606 km away from the center of gravity of Indian dams at 23, 78.75. This earthquake could have been aided by the tremendous force of the nuclear explosion,caused perhaps by the water moment due to the 16.95533 bcm cumulative change in water content equivalent to the seismic moment release of a 7.5 MM major earthquake underneath Fukushima on 21 october 2011, as data on underground nuclear explosions by the nuclear powers followed by big earthquakes unambiguously show(example Ref 6). The seismic energy equivalent to seismic moment corresponding to a 7.5 MM earthquake is 11.12x10^15 Joules or 2.68 Megatonne TNT nuclear explosion(Ref 1a.Turcotte(2002),Ref 2a. wikipedia,TNT equivalent). What was the explosive energy release of the nuclear explosion at Fukushima Daichi 1 nuclear park?It would therefore be informative to compare this with the nuke explosion yields at Fukushima Daichi 1 from time to time. The 9.0 MM quake on March 11 2011 occurred 156 km away. But through the fault a significant energy amount would have struck the parks 1 and 2 at least? The 9 MM Tohoku quake would have released an equivalent to 477 Mt TNT nuclear weapon energy at the epicenter. The power of the same energy release in such a nuclear weapon is about 2 x 10^18 megawatts(See Ref 3a)! 300 billion times the present worldwide electrical capacity !
1a.Turcotte D.L et al. 2002. Geodynamics.2nd Ed. Cambridge University Press. p 354.
Energy released in waves by an earthquake,Es(Joules) of magnitude MM is given by
A one Megaton TNT equivalent nuclear explosion releases energy of 4.184 x 10^15 Joules.
How was the earthquake moment magnitude equivalent of 7.5 MM release calculated for the dynamic archimedean lever effect underneath Fukushima Daichi #1 nuclear park?
See Reference 1 below.
The All India 30 dam total water content change registered on 21 October 2011 is a lowering of 16.95533 bcm. The centre of gravity of the Indian dams is at 23, 78.75. And the distance to Fukushima Daichi #1 park located at 37.423,141.033 is 6081 km. The approximate water moment exerted in Newton meters is given by Force in Newtons x distance in meters. Thus the water moment(WM) exerted is
WM=16.95533bcm x 10^9 cm x 1000 kgs x 9.81 m/sec^2 Newtons x 6081m= 90.3577 x 10^19.05 Nm.
As shown in Ref 1 and as empirically determined about 20 percent of this maximum stress developed in the rocks appears as seismic moment(SM) of an earthquake at the Fukushima Daichi #1 Park. This is about 18 x10^19.05 Nm. From the relation
Moment Magnitude= (log10(SM) + 10)/1.5 MM
we get the moment magnitude to be 7.5, as the plausible equivalent synergistic effect of the surge underneath the plant.
From these discussions we can see how on 23 October 2011, the 7.1 MM quake came to occur at Van, Eastern Turkey. The dynamics are such that the dams exert from their centre of gravity archimedean lever bending moments all round the centre of gravity. Thus when the 7.4 MM earthquake occurred on 21 October, the bending moments exerted all round redistributed themselves and together with the effect of the change in dam contents exerted a significantly strong bending moment surge at Van. In the process the rock at Van failed and resulted in a major earthquake. Note that Van is near the Yeravan Nuclear Park in Armenia.
And gasp at the December 5 2011 occurrence at Fukushima Daichi#1(Unit No 3) as narrated at:
January 10, 2012 at 4:40 pm · Reply
“On Dec. 5 PST, there was a flash that illuminated the entire sky on the webcam, I think it was Johnny Blade (where have you been?) who saw it, too. I crossed my fingers and hoped for lightening, but when the cam came back on, part of the reactor(3) was missing.”(3 in brackets I added).
From what I have derived for 20,21 and 23 October 2011(See
http://glaringlacuna.blogspot.com/ ),it is not all surprising what you describe to have actually happened. First on 5th December 2011 at 010112 a 5.1 MM moment magnitude earthquake shook Fukushima nuclear parks 1 and 2, the epicenter being 156 km(the same distance to the 9.0 MM Tohoku quake on March 11, 2011)from Fukushima Daichi#1 plant. And on this day there was an enormous change in India 30 dam total contents of 11591.54 million cubic meters corresponding to an equivalent earthquake underneath Fukushima Daichi # 1 of 7.4 MM!
And the January 2012 story is just beginning, we caught the 9-10 Jan saga:
And a strong earthquake on the Pacific Rim on the 10th January 2012 (UTC!):
6.6 2012/01/09 04:07:17 -10.557 165.160 38.9 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Followed by two earthquakes near Fukushima Daichi 1:
4.7 2012/01/09 08:50:15 36.676 141.526 40.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2012/01/09 07:10:46 36.630 141.572 33.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
The other earthquakes on the Pacific Rim on this day:
5.1 2012/01/09 21:30:57 -32.548 -71.309 59.3 VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 3.0 2012/01/09 20:58:01 53.174 -161.525 27.5 SOUTH OF ALASKA
MAP 2.6 2012/01/09 20:42:06 53.462 -165.173 25.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
MAP 5.1 2012/01/09 20:13:10 -0.736 133.172 32.8 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2.7 2012/01/09 17:56:06 60.065 -152.809 100.9 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 5.0 2012/01/09 17:45:35 -10.572 165.056 47.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 2.5 2012/01/09 17:02:16 35.730 -121.298 6.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.1 2012/01/09 13:47:59 58.066 -138.640 20.5 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
4.1 2012/01/09 10:54:01 14.851 -92.941 58.6 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
MAP 4.7 2012/01/09 10:35:45 -0.086 123.154 142.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 2.8 2012/01/09 09:23:04 57.114 -155.321 34.9 ALASKA PENINSULA
4.6 2012/01/09 06:33:02 -29.685 -176.163 49.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
MAP 2.5 2012/01/09 06:10:07 52.341 -168.803 22.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
4.8 2012/01/09 03:44:44 -25.125 -179.098 345.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 2012/01/09 02:38:07 -29.588 -176.134 36.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
MAP 2.5 2012/01/09 01:04:09 67.644 -158.731 17.0 NORTHERN ALASKA
And the west side story (other side of the center of gravity of the India-China dams):5.2 2012/01/09 19:53:37 27.135 55.603 15.0 SOUTHERN IRAN. Da zwischen, the surges of the archimedean lever effect of the world's dams hit FD#1's 3&4!
See the web cam disc(enenews.com,dec14 to the present,Jan13 2012...):
Was that Flame explosion we saw as the crane begain to turn on the 9th ? Need to check see !
January 9, 2012 at 11:34 am · Reply
30 foot flames out of #4 SFP now.
Visible on even the real fuzzy JNN cam view right now
Look for the horizontal white bar that the men were walking on the the other day. Look about 1/4 from the right end of this bar. Just underneath the bar at this point is the pool.
you’ll see active flames going above the bar – you can’t miss them.
I can even see it easily in the wide view without zooming.
January 9, 2012 at 11:10 pm · Reply
I’m looking at the tepcocam view Wotcha posts above.
Zoom in on reactor #3 right now – it looks like an open blast furnace coming from the other end – SFP area.
And the smoke – holy moly this is bad…
January 9, 2012 at 11:17 pm · Reply
HOLY CRAP – LOOK AT #4. YOU CAN SEE THE FLAMES FROM THE OTHER END OF THE COMPLEX HIGH ABOVE THE #4 REACTOR BUILDING ON TEPCOCAM.
THEY LOOK TO BE 100 FEET HIGHER THAN THE BUILDING. THEY’RE MIXED IN WITH THE CRANE BOOM AND TO THE RIGHT OF IT.
As much as I’ve seen in the past 10 months – this is the first time I’m feeling sick to my stomach looking at something…
1. Earthquakes Caused by Dams. R. Ashok Kumar 2005. At
2. Dams,cyclones and earthquakes interconnected. 2008. R. Ashok Kumar at
3. Predicting Earthquakes. R. Ashok Kumar. 2005. At
4. Glaring Lacuna in meeting water needs. R. Ashok Kumar. 2011. At
5. Collaterals of Climate Change. R. Ashok Kumar. 2008. At
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